He says blaming an increase in snake bites in Montana on El Niño is "bunk." (Supposedly, the snakes were responding to a change in their habitat caused by changes in rainfall). And he argues that the Indonesian jet did not crash because of poor visibility due to the massive El Niño-stoked fires, but because the pilot got faulty instructions from a flight controller.

Nor are El Niño's effects totally predictable. In California, says Michael Glantz of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, heavy rains typically fall during El Niño -- but the 1991-92 El Niño was accompanied by drought. Maybe the very heavy rains and snow in California and Arizona during the 04-05 winter are a result of the recent El Niño.

Although El Niño is seen as a climatic phenomenon, Glantz argues that it, like most climatic changes, operates through culture, meaning that many of its effects reflect an interaction between people and climate. Five centuries ago, he says, Peruvian fishermen made a living even during El Niños, but today, industrial-scale fishing is damaging fish stocks even when El Niño is not operating, allowing the climatic change to act as a last straw. Thus, he says, "You can't get at the net effect of El Niño" without considering culture as well.

Flipping the coin
We've heard some moaning about who loses during an El Niño. But the climatic shift is not all bad news. Extra rain -- unless it's torrential -- can benefit dry regions. And fish that leave one fishing zone may show up elsewhere.

Eileen Shea of the Center for the Application of Research on the Environment reports that a tuna cannery in American Samoa is typically overburdened with tuna during El Niños, and is taking steps to ship its excess catch to other canneries. And in California, they enjoy record fishing for tropical species like tuna and marlin that move north with the warm water.

Those effects may be minor compared to the reduction in Atlantic hurricanes and possibly tornadoes that typically accompany an El Niño.