PLANS FOR THE FUTURE
There are many elements which need to be taken into account when considering an emergency plan for the next eruption of Vesuvius. The population are the most important factor, in that there are at least one million lives to be considered. There are important roads and railways which run north-south along the coast as well as communication lines and transport systems to be taken into consideration. Not only is Vesuvius the most densely populated volcanic centre on earth, it is also a major economic and cultural centre. There are six towns which fall into the group of those most at risk from a volcanic eruption. These are Torre Annunziata, Torre del Greco, San Giorgio a Cremano, Portici, Ercolano and Napoli which all lie on the southern side of the volcano along the coast. These towns are not only in the highest risk area, they also have the highest population density and are being constantly urbanized.
At the moment the emergency plan set up by the Italian government assumes that 600,000 people could be evacuated within seven days on the 40 trains that run daily. This plan also assumes that volcanologists can predict an eruption within 20 days. There is some concern as to the feasibility of this evacuation plan. A former professor of volcanology, Flavio Dobran is quoted as saying that "the government's plan is preoccupied with trying to predict an eruption, when it should be concerned with disaster management and risk communication". Dobran has now set up a project called "Vesuvius 2000" which is aimed at educating the public about risks and evacuation procedures.